The English Premium: A 2011 Transfer Price Index Review

By Dan Kennett (additional notes by Paul Tomkins)

With the Summer transfer window open, the rumour mill in full swing and clubs quoting eight-figure sums with impunity for English players, it’s time to put some perspective on the figures by looking at some of the fees paid for young English players during the Premier League era.

£15m in today’s prices may still sound a lot, but there’s more money in football than ever before, so who moved for the equivalent of £15m/£20m sums in the past?

Updated Data

Graeme Riley has recently uprated the Transfer Price Index database so the Current Transfer Purchase Price (CTPP) is  2010/11 values –  i.e. all transfers have football inflation taken into account, so that we can make apples with apples comparisons across the Premier League era. (The whole concept is outlined in full detail in Pay As You Play.)

The average price of Premier League purchases rose once in 2010/11 – up 22.1% on the previous season, after a 21.8% downturn the year before, as the recession took hold. The average transfer value for 2010-11 was £4.83 million, only marginally below 2008-09′s all-time high of £5.06 million. At the start of the Premier League, the average price was £594,000, so it’s an almost ten-fold rise in less than two decades.

The more expensive ‘old’ deals seem when applying TPI, the greater the difference between the fee and the average of the day. For example, between 2002 and 2007 the average price of a transfer was around the £2m mark; so someone who cost £20m was ten times the average paid by clubs. Ten times the average in today’s money is almost £50m.

Big Deal

When we look at English transfers in the Premier League, the same 3 continue to be at the top:

Wayne Rooney to Manchester United in 2004/05, now CTPP £62.6m

Rio Ferdinand to Manchester United in 2002/03, now CTPP £61.6m

Alan Shearer to Newcastle United in 1996/97 now CTPP £50.5m

However it’s fair to see that all 3 were either bona fide prodigies or borderline world-class players.  The purpose of this article is to provide a reference point for the current transfer window by looking at The English Premium applied to fringe England internationals moving between English clubs.

Since Andy Cole moving to Man United for £7m in 94/95 (CTPP £33.8m), and having taken into account Rooney, Shearer and Ferdinand, another 21 players in this category have moved for CTPP sums in excess of £20m.

Way out on their own at the top and the only players more then £40m CTPP are:

• Shaun Wright Phillips whose move to Chelsea in 05/06 for a scarcely believable £21m translates to £48.8m CTPP
• Michael Carrick whose £18.6m in 06/07 translates to £41.2m

Then we see the first of the players who have an unadjusted CTPP because they’ve transferred in the past 12 months

• Andy Carroll’s Torres-fueled £35m transfer to Liverpool
• James Milner comes in 10^th with his £26m move to Man City
• Darren Bent is 15^th following his £24m switch to Aston Villa.

Bent is one of four similar English strikers to appear on the list twice, with his £15.5m move to Spurs (CTPP £22.4m) ranked 18^th.

• Stan Collymore is ranked 6^thand 8^th
• Chris Sutton 7^th and 14^th
• Les Ferdinand 11^th and 22^nd

Other eye-popping figures for centre forwards include:

• Emile Heskey to Liverpool in 2000, the £11m fee translating to a huge £32.9m CTPP (almost as much as Andy Carroll)
• Kevin Davies ill-fated £7.25m move to Blackburn in 98/99 inflates to £24.1m CTPP

In amongst the plethora of attacking players in the list, there’s also a couple of midfield terriers to use as a benchmark:

• Scott Parker’s £10m move to Chelsea in the first Abramovich summer of 03/04 comes in at £25.7m CTPP
• Owen Hargreaves luckless £17m switch to Man United in 07/08 is £24.6m CTPP

At the bottom of the list there’s also space for a couple of £20m CTPP defenders

• Joleon Lescott’s £22m move to Man City has already been inflated to £28.3m
• Glen Johnson’s recent £18m switch to Liverpool rises to £23.1m CTPP
• Graeme Le Saux’s £5m deal to Chelsea in 97/98 is £21.5m CTPP

Finally, one topical valuation to finish on is Ashley Young.  His 06/07 switch to Villa for £9.65m coverts to £21.4m. With only 12 months left on his contract and a fee of no more than £15m likely, in real terms Villa could find themselves considerably out of pocket.