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The Transfer Price Index 2011/12 Premier League Predictions

By Dan Kennett, with input from the rest of the TPI team. Definitions Used CTPP = Current Transfer Purchase Price.  The player’s original transfer value adjusted for football inflation using the same method as the Retail Price Index. (Andriy Shevchenko remains the highest CTPP, his £30.8m transfer in July 2006 now worth £68.2m) Sq£ = [...]

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The English Premium: A 2011 Transfer Price Index Review

By Dan Kennett (additional notes by Paul Tomkins) With the Summer transfer window open, the rumour mill in full swing and clubs quoting eight-figure sums with impunity for English players, it’s time to put some perspective on the figures by looking at some of the fees paid for young English players during the Premier League [...]

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Soccernomics Was Wrong: Transfer Expenditures Matter

Zach Slaton, author of A Beautiful Numbers Game blog and Arsenal fan, recently asked to take a look at the massive Transfer Price Index database, to apply some advanced statistical analysis to the findings. What follows is a fairly complex, but also compelling, look at the correlation between transfer spending and league position. Soccernomics Was [...]

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How Many Little Peas to the Pound? Manchester United’s Season So Far

By William Abbs, who contributed the Manchester United perspective to the book. Following the game against Blackburn on 27th November, when Manchester United’s most expensive starting eleven of the season (£229m at CTPP rates) set the team on their way to their biggest win in three years, so far this season Sir Alex Ferguson has [...]

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Arsenal 1992-2010 – Extract from Pay As You Play

Pay As You Play is split into four parts, one of which is a section on all 43 clubs to feature in the first 18 Premier League seasons. Obviously some clubs have more information than others, depending on the time spent in the top flight during that time, and their subsequent achievements. This is the [...]

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The Unpredictable Season – A TPI Analysis

By Graeme Riley One of the remarkable things about the Premier League so far this season is its unpredictability. Chelsea, long time leaders, have already lost as many games as Birmingham and Fulham, both of whom are stranded in the lower reaches of the league. With 4 defeats in 15 games, they are only 2 [...]

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Pay As You Play – Introduction & Chapter One

Introduction One of the more interesting theories associated with football is that success can be ‘bought’; that it’s almost off-the-peg, waiting to be snapped up by any willing buyer who’ll meet the asking price. Often intended to be dismissive – and disregarding the success of others is what football fans do best – the claim [...]

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Damien Comolli at Spurs: A TPI Case Study

Comolli is primarily a scout, but a scout with a difference. He uses empirical data to make objective decisions. Risk is minimised, the opportunities to make mistakes are minimised and value is always sought. Apparently Comolli is also a superb negotiator.

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