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The 2011/12 Update to the All-Time Best Managers Versus the m£XIR Model

This past February the TPI posted an analysis of the all-time best managers versus the m£XIR model.  It took an overall look at the then 19 seasons worth of data to determine who had performed the best versus financial expectations set by the team’s starting XI costs in terms of transfer value.  Another Premier League [...]

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Updating the TTV Model with 2011 Wage Data

No sooner had the digital ink dried on my last post regarding the TTV model, I stumbled across a trustworthy source for 2011 wage data: the Swiss Ramble.  A table of 2011 Premier League wages  can be found in his latest post on Liverpool’s finances.  A quick check versus seasons’ past shows minor differences between [...]

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A Comprehensive Model For Evaluating Total Team Valuation (TTV)

For nearly two years Paul Tomkins, Graeme Riley, Gary Fulcher, Dan Kennett, and I have been using the Transfer Price Index (TPI) to shed light on the financial commitments required to finish in the top echelons of the Premier League.  A number of findings were published in Pay As You Play, while Dan and I have [...]

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All-Time Best Managers Versus Transfer Expenditures (an m£XIR Analysis)

Several weeks ago Simon Kuper used his Financial Times column to publish the results of the latest study by Stefan Szymanski on the correlation between wages and club performance in English soccer over the last forty years.  The study is an extension of Kuper’s and Szymanski’s wages versus table position study in Soccernomics, and one should [...]

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An Alternative History of Premier League Champions (an m£XIR Analysis)

One of the many purposes of the Transfer Price Index has been to make comparisons of relative performance across multiple seasons of  the Premier League using a constant-pound basis for transfer fees. Such an approach is very useful in helping to settle discussions of which clubs and managers have made the best use of their [...]

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The Rise and Fall of Arsene: An Analysis of Wenger’s Transfers and Results

Note: Definitions Used In Transfer Price Index Articles CTPP = Current Transfer Purchase Price.  The player’s original transfer value adjusted for football inflation using the same method – but not the same figures – as the Retail Price Index. (Andriy Shevchenko holds the highest CTPP, his £30.8m transfer in July 2006 now worth £68.2m; the increase down [...]

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The 2011 Update to the MSq£ Model

Much of the last few months have been focused on models built with £XI data; both long- and short-term. (The £XI being the average cost of a team’s line-up over the course of a season, adjusted with TPI inflation). The resultant M£XI and m£XIR models (see previous blog entries for explanations) both benefit from the accuracy [...]

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The Declining Fortunes of David Moyes (An m£XIR analysis)

Three weeks ago I began taking requests for m£XIR analyses.  The first post based upon such requests was a timely one given the appointment of Alex McLeish as Aston Villa’s new manager, and explained why Villa fans and management must have a realistic outlook of a 7th or 8th place finish next season. Following the [...]

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Using the TPI to Set Realistic Expectations at Aston Villa

Plenty has been written about the unreasonable expectations of Aston Villa’s management team and some of their supporters since they began their search for a new manager. Chris Nee wrote a great piece at Two Footed Tackle, detailing Villa’s history in the Premier League. He makes the case that their “expectations may not have been [...]

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The Impact of £XI on Match Outcome

“What a coach does is attempt to increase the index of probability when it comes to winning a match. As a coach all you can [do] is deny fortune as much of its role as you possibly can” Such was the philosophy Juanma Lillo expressed in a great interview by Sid Lowe in Issue 1 [...]

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